INTRODUCTION As inflation continues to trend lower, most central banks appear to be done hiking interest rates. The European Central Bank...
We believe the likelihood of a recession starting in 2023 has been increasing. While the Federal Reserve has not explicitly forecast a recession, the rising unemployment rate shown in the Fed’s quarterly Survey of Economic Projections is consistent with a recession forecast.
US GDP rose in Q3 2022 and seems likely to rise mildly in Q4 2022. We have been seeing signs of weakness in the economic data, including in the housing sector, business equipment investment, exports, consumer spending and inventory investments.
Globally, we find the recession risk in Europe to be extremely elevated. In our opinion, China’s easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions could lead to a bumpier road to recovery than many are expecting.
By The Loomis Sayles Macro Strategies Group
The information in this article is provided for general information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any person. Investors Mutual Limited (AFSL 229988) is the issuer and Responsible Entity of the Loomis Sayles Global Equity Fund (‘Fund’). Loomis Sayles & Company, L.P. is the Investment Manager. This information should not be relied upon in determining whether to invest in the Fund and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial product, security or other instrument. In deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold an investment in the Fund, an investor should consider the Fund’s Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination, available on the website www.loomissayles.com.au or by contacting us on 1300 157 862. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments in the Fund are not a deposit with, or other liability of, Investors Mutual Limited and are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Investors Mutual Limited does not guarantee the performance of the Fund or any particular rate of return.
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